Petroleum risk and decision analysis

DURATION

5 days

DATE

8 -12 December 2019

FEE

£3950

LOCATION

Hotel Novotel
Dubai Deira City Centre
8th street, Port Saeed District,
Front of Deira City Centre Mall
Dubai – United Arab Emirates
 

Course outcomes

Running a successful petroleum operation requires a blend of technology, business savvy, and people skills. If you already have a firm grasp of exploration or production technology, learn to amplify its effectiveness with applied project management techniques. This course is aimed at helping technical personnel make the best business decisions – decisions that Lead to lowest project cost while still meeting all production or exploration goals.

Project and resource management covers the principles and application of project Management to the upstream oil and gas business. Participants may choose a case study from a number of real-life exploration, production, facilities, and general management Situations or they may bring the details of one of their own current projects. Because of this Experience with practical situations, participants can use this project management Principles their first day back on the job.

This interactive training provides participants with the skills required to deliver projects effectively, from decision-making concepts used by business development and commercial departments, through to FEED and into planning & delivery.

This training focuses on industry best practice Project Management examples merged into practical instruction. Digging deep into tried and tested processes and tools, in order to best support the likelihood of future projects achieving their desired results and benefits delivered by the project.

Who should attend

Geologists, engineers, geophysicists, managers, team leaders, economists, project accountants,Health and safety staff and planners.

Course Objectives

How To:

  • Describe the elements of the decision analysis process and the respective roles of management and the analysis team
  • Express and interpret judgments about risks and uncertainties as probability distributions and popular statistics
  • Represent discrete risk events in Venn diagrams, probability trees, and joint probability tables
  • Solve for expected values with decision trees, payoff tables, and Monte Carlo simulation (hand calculations)
  • Craft and solve decision models
  • Evaluate investment and design alternatives with decision tree analysis
  • Develop and solve decision trees for value of information (VOI) problems

    Course Content

    • Cashflow Analysis

      • Familiarization with Economic terms
      • Setting up Cashflow Calculation
      • Depreciation Methods
      • Loss Carry Forwards
      • Inflation
      • Nominal & Real Cashflow
      • Sunk Costs
      • Project Financing

       

      • Economic Indicators
      • Economic Indicators Definitions
      • Present Value Concept
      • Discount Factor
      • Net Present Value
      • Internal Rate of Return
      • Effect of Project Delay
      • Payback Period
      • Profit / Investment Ratio
      • Incremental Projects

       

      Risks and Uncertainties

      • Risk & Uncertainty
      • Expected Value Concept
      • Decision Tree Analysis
      • Farm-out Decision
      • Probability Analysis
      • Sensitivity Analysis
      • Probability Distribution
      • Monte Carlo Simulation

       

      Setting up Spreadsheet Calculation

      • Introduction to Spreadsheet Calculation
      • Simple Cashflow using Excel
      • NPV Calculations
      • Application of Economic Indicators
      • Class Discussion

       

      Setting up Oil Field Development Model

      • Group Activities
      • Setting up an Integrated Economic Model of a Typical Oil Field Development
      • Project Sensitivity Analysis for the Selected Model
      • Introduction to Russell Field Model

      Final Remarks

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